Middle powers are the determinant fulcrum in the iterative challenges of balancing the spectrum that shifts from socialist to social democracy to democratic authoritarianism and fascism. The law must be the law. Global order cannot be based on the subjectivity of self-interest, strategic convenience, or might.
On December 11, 2024 Council of Europe adopted 56 commitments for action set out in UN Resolution A/RES/79/1 “The Pact for the Future”, in particular to ensure strict respect for international law; to uphold the mandate of the International Court of Justice and comply with its decisions; to cooperate with the International Criminal Court (ICC) and comply with its orders; and to reform the multilateral system and its institutions through an inclusive approach. An exemplary response to a wave of far-right movements, bearing unmistakably fascist traits: attacks on democratic norms and institutions, a reinvigorated nationalism laced with racist rhetoric, authoritarian impulses, and systematic assaults on the rights of those who do not fit a manufactured traditional authority, rooted in religious, sexual and gender normativity.
But realpolitik requires a balancing of ideological values, economic stability, and national security interests. The balancing of policies that address all three is subject to changing importance and urgency which often shift tolerances, commitments, and alliances. This is the moving of the fulcrum along the spectrum from socialist to social democracy to democratic authoritarianism and fascism. The balance, since America moving decidedly towards authoritarianism, is forcing liberal democracies to move their positions farther to democratic authoritarianism than might have been preferred or expected.
Canada, for instance, in the short time since Prime Minister Carney’s keynote speech at the World Economic Forum shifted from its earlier strategy of “friend shoring” with like-minded partners towards one which look like the Sanskrit treatise “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”. A strategy which seemingly melds the two into its own version of non-alignment, managing its challenges with the United States while expanding partnerships with China and India; despite Canada’s strained if not adversarial human rights and security differences with the two. The European Union and the United Kingdom too have made similar shifts, moving to forming closer ties with the China and India despite fundamental ideological, economic, and national security differences.
These subtle compromises to authoritarianism risk drawing middle powers farther in the wrong direction on the spectrum, hasten the erosion and legitimacy of existing institutions and norms while powering those with autocratic tendencies.
Spain’s denial for the US to use jointly operated bases to attack Iran represents a courageous commitment to the Pact for the Future. The American-Israeli attack on Iran, and American attacks on Venezuela, despite concerns shared by Europe, Canada and Australia violate commitment to liberal democracies to international law and United Nations resolutions. Spain’s position represents a genuine commitment to the rule of law, should be supported and defended. Prime minister Pedro Sánchez is correct to resist American- Israeli adventurism. Pedro Sánchez has correctly laid out the alternative to the rule of law by referencing the wars in Iraq, Ukraine, and Gaza. Compromise to the rule of law can only lead to the spiralling of unilateralism as an unwelcome normative global order.
Nicolás Maduro nor his wife Cilia Flores (to be tried in the US under the Ker-Frisbie Doctrine), or Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be brought before the International Criminal Court.
Donald Trump has effectively ignored Europeans in his negotiations with Vladimir Putin, for whom there is an ICC arrest warrant, over his illegal war in Ukraine. And the enforcement of the ICC arrest warrant against Benjamin Netanyahu for “war crimes of starvation as a method of warfare and of intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts is an existential test of the legitimacy and commitment of the liberal democratic order, international law, and United Nations resolutions” remains a prima facie test of the global commitment to upholding international law. The law must be the law. Global order cannot be based on the subjectivity of self-interest, strategic convenience, or might.
American unilateralism is forcing liberal democracies to grin and bear positions farther towards democratic authoritarianism end of the spectrum. The selling out of values, hiding behind wilful blindness, and tolerating noncompliance for short-term ideological, economic, and national security interest risk permanently and irreparably undermining international order and empowering might-makes-right.
Middle powers are the determinant fulcrum in the iterative challenges of balancing the spectrum that shifts from socialist to social democracy to democratic authoritarianism and fascism. The American-Israeli attack on Iran, and American attacks on Venezuela, despite concerns shared by Europe, Canada and Australia violate commitment to liberal democracies to international law and United Nations resolutions. Middle powers bear a special responsibility for making good on their charter as defenders of liberalism, human rights and the rule of law. Prime minister Pedro Sánchez is correct to resist American- Israeli adventurism. Spain’s denying the US permission to use jointly operated bases to attack Iran represents a courageous commitment to the Pact for the Future.
Anil Anand
March 4, 2026
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