Geopolitics & Global Perspectives

The American-Israeli war with Iran, named Epic Fury by the Americans and Roaring Lion by Isreal, beyond the cost in human life and infrastructure, has shocked the global economy  disrupting the nearly 20 billion barrels of oil transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a fifth of global liquified gas, forty percent of global helium supply, and fertilizer including ammonia, and nitrogen. Disruption and surcharge on shipping costs, insurance, cancelled orders, and repricing of commodities and products will impact crop production, global food supply, and parts and products supply chains long into the future. A cost which will have a disproportionate impact on the smaller emerging economies of the global south.

The rise of authoritarianism cannot be dismissed with willful blindness, nor should the opportunity to expose, defend and confront it.

Middle powers are the determinant fulcrum in the iterative challenges of balancing the spectrum that shifts from socialist to social democracy to democratic authoritarianism and fascism. The law must be the law.  Global order cannot be based on the subjectivity of self-interest, strategic convenience, or might.

Middle power honesty and resistance spoken aloud.

Hoping for TACO (Trump always chickens out) would be a mistake. Any compromise on US exploitation of rare earth minerals or expansion of the US military presence in Greenland would only confirm for Trump that he can get his way even with the most preposterous demands and would encourage further demands.

America’s attack on Venezuela—alongside threats to annex Greenland, incorporate Canada as its 51st state, attack Colombia, or seize control of the Panama Canal—raises existential concerns about America’s commitment to a rule-based order and the legitimacy of the prevailing system for global governance.

Prime Minister Carney and Prime Minister Albanese have been entrusted with more than just the leadership of their countries; they have been tasked with defending the delicate balance between liberal democracy and the rise of illiberalism.

Middle power economies need to establish iterative and agile perspectives for protecting their strategic and economic national security interests. The consequences of the emerging rivalries between a MAGA America and an emerging consolidation of a Russian-Indian-Chinese Troika must not be underestimated.

A slippery slide of America into authoritarianism is now fully entrenched. Beyond being empowered to dismantle civil liberties and political rights, electoral integrity, and erode the checks and balances of legislative governance within its borders, America has declared war on its allies. 

Middle powers have largely neglected to assert their role as essential and equal partners in sustaining American dominance, despite being the key counterbalance to MAGA expansionism. A cohesive and assertive middle power coalition is vital for the survival of both America and the rule-based global order.

Governments have a role as molders of collective public opinion as much as representatives of public opinion. But both responding and molding must be measured and prescribed to the sensitivity, capacity, and tolerance of the electorate, the whole electorate—not just to those whose votes mattered more.

The 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) marks a time when the world rests on a knife’s edge, facing a worsening climate emergency, floundering human rights, economies drowning in debt, and great power confrontation.