The American-Israeli war with Iran, named Epic Fury by the Americans and Roaring Lion by Isreal, beyond the cost in human life and infrastructure, has shocked the global economy disrupting the nearly 20 billion barrels of oil transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a fifth of global liquified gas, forty percent of global helium supply, and fertilizer including ammonia, and nitrogen. Disruption and surcharge on shipping costs, insurance, cancelled orders, and repricing of commodities and products will impact crop production, global food supply, and parts and products supply chains long into the future. A cost which will have a disproportionate impact on the smaller emerging economies of the global south.
Iran has retaliated by targeting U.S. military facilities, Isreal, and energy and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf including Saudi Arabia, Bharain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The conflict continues to expand with Iranian missiles aimed at Azerbaijan Turkey, and Cyprus; and Israel striking Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah bases along Lebanon’s southern border and as far as Beirut.
What remains unclear is the justification for the timing of the American-Israeli attack on Iran.
President Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Mike Waltz, US ambassador to the United Nations have all claimed that Iran’s missile arsenal and nuclear ambitions posed an imminent direct threat to American forces in the region. According to Waltz the United States made every effort to negotiate a peaceful resolution, failing which the government of Israe and the United States executed their lawful actions to address these threats.
The validity of self-defence as justification against an imminent armed attack by Iran on the United States or Israel is problematic. The "imminence" of the threats, given American claims that bombing of Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility had already “obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons”, is disputable.
The war, diminished as "a little excursion” by Donald Trump, and its timing may, however, have had another strategic objective – constraining China ahead of Trump’s high stakes meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing scheduled for March 31-April 2.
The U.S. attack on Venezuela (Operation Absoluter Resolve), and subsequent regime change, was in part a response to increasing Chinese presence and influence in the Western hemisphere including along the Panama Canal. In 2023, the two countries elevated their relationship to an “all-weather strategic partnership,” a high-level diplomatic designation that signals long-term cooperation across politics, trade, energy, and other areas. Under Hugo Chavez Venezuela was the largest purchaser of Chinese military equipment in Latin America. China purchases most of Venezuela’s oil, accounting for over half of Venezuela’s fiscal revenue, despite U.S. sanctions. Regime change in Venezuela constrained Chinese influence in South America and provides control of oil destined for China. America is far more concerned with rise of China’s strategic influence than with narco-terrorism.
A similar regime change in Iran would expand control of Iranian oil and shipping routes from the Gulf to Asia, enlarging American’s strategic advantage over China. China has become a critical concern given its broader naval strategy for projecting power, securing sea lanes critical to energy imports (80 per cent of Asia’s oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz), safeguarding market access, and shaping global maritime norms aligned with China’s interests. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has participated in five separate Security Belt naval drills with Iranian and Russian vessels, testing joint counterterrorism and counter-piracy capabilities in the Gulf of Oman since 2019 – a direct challenge to American hegemony.
In the interim the U.S. waived sanctions allowing India to buy Russian oil; easing US-Indian tensions towards maintaining India’s strategic importance as an ally against China. China’s constraint being welcome by its archenemy, India, which despite its traditional non-alignment will support a check of China’s regional influence.
If it was expected that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, like Iraqi soldiers during the 2003 Iraq invasion would surrender en masse, it did not happen, nor does Iran appear to be willing to concede defeat anytime soon. And although Ali Khamemi has been eliminated, he was replaced in short order by his son Mojtaba Khamen. There has been no regime change. Instead, civilian casualties continue to mount, including the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' elementary school where 175–180 victims, mainly girls aged between 7 and 12, were killed. The Gulf region is faced with the potential for wider escalation of hostilities, and Putin is a handed a windfall - surging demand for Russian oil and distracting American support for Ukraine.
Donald Trump’s “little excursion” more than impacting the economy has thrust the globe to the brink of chronic insecurity and conditions in which unexpected events could spiraling out of control.
On March 17 Joe Kent, director of national intelligence, resigned stating that “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.’’, citing deliberate Israeli “misinformation” and lies to President Donald Trump about a “swift path to victory.”
Israel has already intimated that Pakistan is next, while expanding incursions into Lebanon and maintaining its brutal occupation of Gaza. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel in advance of the war takes on far greater significance. Isreal like America sees India as an ally against China and what Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett identified as an emerging axis comprised of Turkey, Qatar, the Muslim Brotherhood, and nuclear-armed Pakistan.
While India and Israel have formed an informal coalition against Pakistan and by consequence China, Pakistan and China have declared “strong solidarity and support” with Iran. Indian strategic interests, including kinetic territorial disputes with Pakistan and Chinas, align with those of Isreal and America against China’s belt and road initiative, and Pakistan’s strategic importance within it.
The larger strategic motives facing America, therefore, involve aligning its strategic posture, assets, and alliances for confronting China – not narco-terrorism, regime change for the sake of regime change, or an imminent attack by Iran.
Donald Trump has, however, grossly underestimated Iran and the consequences of being drawn into a war with Iran. According to the Centre of Strategic and International Studies the first six days of the war have cost an estimated $11.3 billion. Congressional estimates range in the ballpark of $1 to $2 billion daily.
The war is quickly adding to an already heavy burden given America’s debt to GDP ratio of 123.7% and $38.8 trillion national debt increasing by approximately $1 trillion every 100 days. A stressful if not limiting prospect given that economists, including the Penn Wharton Budget Model, caution that America could face default within the next 20 years. America can little afford an extended war given its long-term strategic challenges with China and Russia.
President Trump has overestimated America’s strategic advantages, underestimated the power of coalitions, and miscalculated the complexity of the global order. Whatever the reason for the war, history will likely assess it a colossal misadventure.
Anil Anand is an independent Canadian policy researcher and author with extensive experience in law enforcement, security, and social justice.
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